Ideas & Society Program: Russia’s War on Ukraine

Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine has shocked most of the world.

The Australian media has reported the daily progress of the invasion, the courageous Ukrainian resistance and the terrible suffering of the Ukrainian people.  What has not been analysed in any depth, however, are the reasons for the Russian invasion and its likely consequences for Ukraine, Europe and the world.

To consider the different explanations for Russia’s behaviour and ambitions, La Trobe’s Ideas and Society Program has assembled an outstanding panel—Professor Paul Dibb, the former Deputy Secretary of the Defence Department and Russian watcher for several decades; Dr Robert Horvath, a scholar specialising in the Russian Right and author of Putin’s Fascists and Putin’s ‘Preventive Counter-Revolution’ and Dr Carrie McDougal, formerly Legal Specialist in DFAT and author of The Crime of Aggression under the Rome Statute of International Criminal Law. The discussion will be moderated by Professor Martin Krygier, a specialist in the idea of the rule of law and long-time observer of the political affairs of Poland and Eastern Europe.

The panel will consider some questions critical to the future of Ukraine, Europe and the world.

• Why did Russia decide to invade Ukraine earlier this year?
• How far was the decision President Putin’s alone? What are the principal political forces in contemporary Russia Putin relies upon?
• When the invasion began what was Russia’s ambition? Did Russia hope to control all of Ukraine or were its ambitions ‘limited’ to the annexation of territory in the East of Ukraine in addition to its earlier seizure of the Crimean Peninsula?
• Is it likely or even possible that the poor performance of the Russian military forces thus far has altered the earlier ambition?
• Apart from control over Ukraine in whole or in part, is there reason to believe that Russia’s ambitions extend to former parts of the Soviet Union including the Baltic States? Have Finland, Sweden and Poland reason to fear further Russian expansionism?
• How might the current war end? How will NATO respond if Russia demands in return for “peace”, the effective annexation of Eastern Ukraine and a Belarus-like control over all Ukraine? How will it respond to evidence of further Russian ambitions in Eastern Europe?
• What are the most important consequences of the Russian invasion for Europe and the world?